Investment Assumptions — ETF and Property

Understand the key assumptions behind both investment paths when comparing ETFs and property in the retirement calculator.

ETF Assumptions

ETF outcomes can look deceptively smooth if the assumptions are too generous. Use this page to set a realistic return frame and to understand what parts of the ETF result come from compounding versus tax drag.

Total return should be a long-run assumption

ETF total return is best treated as a long-run nominal assumption for scenario comparison. It should not be read as a short-term market call or a promise about what the next few years will deliver.

Contribution timing still matters

Even simple changes in when money arrives can shift the ETF path. If your savings rate is likely to change over time, compare a flat baseline with a staged contribution path rather than forcing all years to look the same.

Tax settings can narrow the gap

Dividend tax, CGT treatment, and salary context all matter. The app models these in a simplified Australian framework, which makes them useful for comparison but not a substitute for tailored tax advice.

Focus on repeatability, not only on the winning case

If the ETF path still reaches FIRE earlier or with a healthier downside profile after you trim expected returns, that is a stronger result than a win that disappears as soon as assumptions become slightly less optimistic.

Property Assumptions

Property results can look strong or fragile depending on a small set of cashflow and timing assumptions. This guide is about choosing realistic ranges, not defending one optimistic input.

Vacancy and rental yield move the whole cashflow profile

Rental yield affects gross income, while vacancy reduces what you actually collect. Test a clean baseline first, then try a tougher case with lower effective rent to see how much the property path depends on occupancy.

Maintenance and management are not rounding errors

Management fees, maintenance, and annual property expenses can materially change after-tax outcomes. If the property path only wins under very light expense assumptions, that is important information, not noise.

Sell year changes both tax timing and final outcome

The year you sell affects realised gains, transaction costs, and the shape of the later years. Compare at least two sale timings so you do not mistake one chosen exit year for a universal property edge.

Use ranges, then compare the pattern

The best way to use these inputs is to save multiple scenarios and compare the pattern. If property only wins in a narrow band of low-cost, low-vacancy assumptions, that tells you more than one headline result ever will.

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