How Long Will My Super Last in Retirement?
"Will my super run out before I do?" It is the single most common worry among Australians approaching retirement, and for good reason. Unlike a defined-benefit pension that pays until death, an account-based super pension has a finite balance that shrinks with every withdrawal. How quickly it shrinks depends on four variables: your starting balance, your annual spending, the investment return your fund earns, and whether you receive any Age Pension supplement.
This guide walks through realistic drawdown scenarios so you can estimate how many years your super will sustain your lifestyle. For a full interactive projection, try the Super Planning calculator which models year-by-year balances including Age Pension integration.
Super drawdown by balance and spending
The table below shows approximately how many years your super will last at different spending levels. All figures assume a 5% nominal investment return, no Age Pension, and constant annual withdrawals. In practice your actual timeline will vary with market performance and inflation, but these numbers provide a useful starting framework.
| Super Balance | $40k/year | $50k/year | $60k/year | $70k/year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | ~11 years | ~9 years | ~7 years | ~6 years |
| $600,000 | ~18 years | ~14 years | ~11 years | ~9 years |
| $800,000 | ~27 years | ~19 years | ~15 years | ~13 years |
| $1,000,000 | 35+ years | ~25 years | ~20 years | ~16 years |
Notice the non-linear relationship. At $800,000 with $40,000 spending, your super lasts 27 years because the remaining balance keeps earning returns. But at $70,000 spending, the higher withdrawal rate outpaces returns and the balance depletes in roughly 13 years. The gap between modest and comfortable spending is not just dollars per year — it is decades of retirement security.
Minimum super drawdown rates by age
Once you convert your super accumulation account into an account-based pension (which most retirees do to access regular income), the ATO mandates minimum annual withdrawals. You must withdraw at least the following percentage of your account balance each financial year:
| Age | Minimum Drawdown Rate |
|---|---|
| Under 65 | 4% |
| 65 to 74 | 5% |
| 75 to 79 | 6% |
| 80 to 84 | 7% |
| 85 to 89 | 9% |
| 90 to 94 | 11% |
| 95 and over | 14% |
These are minimums, not targets. You can withdraw more if you need to, and many retirees do. The rates increase with age because the government expects you to draw down your super during your lifetime rather than passing it on as an estate. Note that the minimum is calculated on your account balance at 1 July each year, so a falling balance means a falling minimum dollar amount even as the percentage rises.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the government temporarily halved these rates. The standard rates listed above apply for 2025-26.
How inflation erodes your super
A dollar today does not buy a dollar's worth of goods in 10 years. At 3% annual inflation, $60,000 of spending today requires roughly $80,000 in 10 years to maintain the same lifestyle. Over a 25-year retirement, this compounding effect is dramatic.
The table below shows what a $500,000 super balance is worth in real purchasing power at different inflation rates over time:
| Years | 2% Inflation | 3% Inflation | 4% Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 years | $410,000 | $372,000 | $338,000 |
| 20 years | $336,000 | $277,000 | $228,000 |
| 30 years | $276,000 | $206,000 | $154,000 |
At 3% inflation, your $500,000 buys only $206,000 worth of today's goods after 30 years. This is why the investment return your super earns matters so much — it needs to outpace inflation just to preserve purchasing power, let alone fund your withdrawals. A return of 5% nominal with 3% inflation gives only 2% real growth, which may not be enough to sustain high drawdown rates over a long retirement.
What return rate to assume in retirement
During the accumulation phase (while you are working and building your super), a growth-oriented portfolio with 70-90% equities is common. In retirement, most financial planners recommend shifting to a more defensive allocation — typically 50/50 or 60/40 between growth and defensive assets.
A balanced super fund in retirement might target 4-6% nominal returns per year over the long term. After inflation of 2.5-3%, that leaves a real return of 1.5-3%. This is lower than what you might have earned during accumulation, and your drawdown projections need to reflect that.
Be cautious about assuming high returns in retirement. A 7% return assumption might be reasonable for a 30-year-old with decades of compounding ahead, but a 65-year-old drawing down their balance is exposed to sequence-of-returns risk. A bad market in the first few years of retirement can permanently reduce the longevity of your super, even if returns recover later. Using a conservative 4-5% nominal return for planning gives you a margin of safety.
Age Pension as a safety net
The Age Pension is the single biggest factor in extending how long your super lasts, yet many retirees underestimate its impact. As of March 2026, the maximum single Age Pension is approximately $28,514 per year (including pension supplement and energy supplement). For couples, the combined maximum is approximately $43,008 per year.
You become eligible at age 67 and must satisfy both an income test and an assets test. The lower of the two test results determines your payment. For a single homeowner, the full pension cuts out at approximately $674,000 in assessable assets (the part pension cuts out at a higher threshold). Your super balance in pension phase is counted as an assessable asset.
Even a part pension makes a meaningful difference. If you receive $15,000 per year in Age Pension, that is $15,000 less you need to draw from your super each year. On a $50,000 spending budget, a $15,000 pension reduces your super drawdown to $35,000 — roughly equivalent to having an extra $300,000 in your super balance at a 5% return rate.
The Pensioner Concession Card that comes with any pension payment also provides discounts on medications, utilities, council rates, and transport that can save several thousand dollars per year in practice.
Worked example: $800,000 super at age 62
Consider a single retiree who stops working at 62 with $800,000 in super and annual spending of $55,000. They start an account-based pension and begin drawing $55,000 per year. Their balanced super fund earns 5% nominal per year.
Phase 1: Age 62 to 67 (no Age Pension). During these five years, the full $55,000 comes from super. After accounting for 5% investment returns on the declining balance, the super balance falls to approximately $560,000 by age 67.
Phase 2: Age 67 onward (with Age Pension). At age 67, with $560,000 in assessable assets, this retiree qualifies for a part Age Pension of roughly $15,000 per year. Now they only need $40,000 from super instead of $55,000. The lower drawdown rate dramatically extends the life of the remaining balance.
Without Age Pension: super runs out around age 80 — just 18 years of retirement.
With Age Pension from 67: the combination of reduced super drawdown and pension income extends the money to approximately age 87 — a full 25 years. If spending is trimmed slightly as the retiree ages (common in practice), the money could stretch even further.
This example illustrates why planning for Age Pension integration is essential. The five years between 62 and 67 are the most expensive because you are fully self-funded. Some retirees choose to work part-time during this bridge period to preserve their super balance for later.
Model your own scenario
The numbers above are simplified illustrations. Your actual retirement will involve varying returns, changing spending patterns, inflation adjustments, and evolving Age Pension rules. For a detailed year-by-year projection that accounts for all of these factors, use the Super Planning calculator.